A subtle but significant announcement made its way through the financial news on May 28, 2026: NOAA had officially certified The Metals Company’s exploration license application for USA B, a region of the Pacific seafloor that is roughly 122,000 square kilometers in size. It is located somewhere between Hawaii and Mexico and is covered in potato-sized mineral formations that have been accumulating undisturbed for millions of years. It wasn’t a license to mine. However, it was the most obvious indication to date that the US government is actually willing to allow someone to try.
On May 28, 2026, TMC announced the certification. The USA B application area contains an estimated 1.02 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules and covers about 122,000 km² of seafloor. The Metals Company’s whole business model is based on those nodules, which are rough, dark, and rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. For years, TMC has argued—with differing degrees of investor enthusiasm—that these metals are essential to everything from defense manufacturing to electric vehicle batteries, and that removing them from the ocean floor is somehow less harmful than excavating mines on land. It’s a strong pitch. The question of whether it can withstand scrutiny is completely different.
The Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and its implementing regulations were fully complied with by TMC USA’s combined application for an exploration license and a commercial recovery permit for the USA A area, according to NOAA. Of the two milestones, that determination is arguably more important because it came about a month before the USA B certification. The USA A application is the one that, if accepted, would enable the start of actual extraction since it covers both exploration and commercial recovery. The regulatory process should be finished by the end of Q1 2027, according to TMC USA. Secsec
It’s important to consider what the certification truly entails and what it doesn’t. Before making a final decision, NOAA will prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for TMC USA’s planned exploration activities in the USA B area based on the certification. This statement will be released for public comment. There is still a long way to go. Environmental organizations, international regulators, and an increasing number of marine scientists have voiced grave concerns about the project’s financial foundations as well as ecological disruption to an ecosystem that we hardly understand.
Based solely on its confirmed mineral reserves, TMC’s project would not be profitable, according to an independent analysis commissioned by Deep Sea Mining Campaign, Greenpeace International, and Mining Watch Canada. According to the company’s own admission, confirmed reserves would only last eight years of operation and generate no profit, according to the report. TMC included more than 113 million wet metric tonnes of speculative resources—material that does not meet the conventional threshold for economic viability—into its financial projections in order to paint a more positive picture. The analysis also pointed out that manganese silicate markets and processing infrastructure, which just do not yet exist on a commercial scale, account for nearly one-third of the anticipated revenue. Reading those results gives the impression that there is a greater discrepancy between what TMC is telling regulators and what the actual data supports than the company would like to admit.
The waste question comes next. The independent review described TMC’s claim that its operations would generate zero waste as essentially ignoring the sediment-laden water released back into the ocean during seafloor disturbance. The company’s pre-feasibility study also made no mention of the radioactivity of polymetallic nodules, which increases when they are broken or crushed during processing. These are not insignificant technical notes. If something goes wrong, these are the kinds of omissions that often define how a project is remembered.
Another level of complexity is added by the fact that the application is the first of its kind and was submitted under NOAA’s new consolidated application and review process. Here, there is no precedent. The deep seabed has never been mined for profit by any nation. The current regulatory framework was created in 1980, when there was no technology to accomplish this. As part of a larger plan to compete with China in vital mineral supply chains, the Trump administration has capitalized on this ambiguity by promoting increased domestic mining both on land and under international waters. Officials from NOAA have maintained that the organization is legally able to grant these licenses. It’s still unclear if that interpretation will withstand a legal challenge. sec.
As this process develops, it’s difficult to ignore the real urgency surrounding the supply of critical minerals, such as cobalt, nickel, and manganese, which are needed to build the batteries and infrastructure of the coming decades. This is a significant amount of work for a project whose financial case and environmental protections are still seriously questioned. The Metals Company’s largest regulatory obstacle has been overcome. That much is true. It is still unclear what will happen to the seafloor, investors, and the larger issue of who controls what is extracted from international waters.
