There was no rain in Washington, DC, today. On Monday, July 20, 2026, there were clear sky and a high temperature of about 86 degrees Fahrenheit. It was dry, warm, and humid as the capital is typically in July. Practically speaking, the walkways remained dry and everybody who left an umbrella at home made the right decision because there was just a five percent probability of rain.
Nevertheless, two more fascinating chapters are sandwiched between the calm weather of today. The city has experienced every aspect of a DC summer over the last two weeks, including a period of extreme heat that peaked on July 15 at 36 degrees Celsius, the highest temperature recorded during that time, and humidity levels that reached 97% on July 7. Although “mild” is a subjective phrase in a city that doesn’t actually drop down between June and September, the low point of the stretch was a relatively moderate 21 degrees on July 13.
The image of the rain has also been uneven. Humidity fluctuated dramatically over this time, from 37 percent on July 13 to that 97 percent increase on July 7, according to the reference weather data. This suggests that moisture in the atmosphere has been cycling through the region without always causing precipitation at any given recording point. Heavy air, sporadic afternoon thunderstorms that quickly materialize and disappear, and days when the promise of rain never quite materializes are typical characteristics of July in Washington, DC. The pattern is familiar to anybody who has observed the sky over the Mall on a July afternoon: clouds gather during the afternoon, thunder blows in from the west, and by twilight, everything goes on.
It’s important to pay attention to the forecast for the next few days, especially if you’re planning an outdoor event or are just debating whether to water your garden. There is a 65% probability of rain on Tuesday, July 21. That rises to 70% on Wednesday, July 22. By Thursday, the likelihood had returned to zero. For the mid-Atlantic, this is a very normal mid-July pattern: a few clear days, a front passing through with accompanying rain, and then clearing once more. These forecasts are constantly monitored and updated by the National Weather Service’s local office in Sterling, Virginia, and considering the likelihood of rain, it seems sensible to check in on Tuesday morning before leaving.
To put things in perspective, the average temperature for the last two weeks has been 27 degrees Celsius, which is exactly what a typical July in Washington, DC, looks like historically. In July, the city receives about 10 days of measurable precipitation on average, distributed unevenly throughout the month, with afternoon thunderstorms contributing significantly to the total. That wasn’t the case today. It might be in the next days.
Residents of Washington, DC, who have experienced some of the city’s summer weather are accustomed to its almost predictable characteristics, such as the air’s heaviness even in clear skies, how evenings don’t cool down much, and the forecast’s consistency in turning back toward rain after a dry spell. Your intuition is probably correct if you were in Washington, DC, today and it seemed like rain was on the way. Not until tomorrow, please.
