The idea that parts of the Pacific seafloor, which are so far away and so dark that most people will never be able to see them, are being put up for auction this summer seems a little surreal. Not in a far-off future. this summer. And perhaps all the way through autumn. That is the current state of affairs in Washington, where the Trump administration is acting at a rate that has shocked even those who anticipated swift action.
President Trump issued an executive order in April of last year with the goal of creating a deep-sea mining sector virtually from the ground up. The idea was simple: other nations are already interested in the abundant minerals found on the ocean floor that the United States needs. Why hold off? According to a recent Associated Press investigation, at least nine businesses have started negotiations with the government for access to seabed resources, and since then, federal regulators have been working feverishly to create a permitting framework. Private companies may soon be able to lease the seafloor that stretches from American Samoa up toward Alaska. Both the territory and the speed are astounding.
These minerals are not mysterious. Manganese, copper, nickel, and cobalt are found in polymetallic nodules, which are about the size of a fist and were created over millions of years from the compressed remains of shark teeth and shells. These elements are crucial for battery production and clean energy technologies. The seabed between Mexico and Hawaii alone is said to contain trillions of these nodules. Businesses are planning to dredge ocean sands closer to the coast in search of phosphorites, zirconium, and titanium. On paper, it seems like an almost unthinkable amount of resources that are just lying around unutilized.
Investors appear to think there is a genuine opportunity. Since the executive order was signed, companies in this sector have raised millions of dollars in new capital, and their stock prices have increased significantly. This has a momentum that occasionally seems more like a financial tale than an environmental one. The quieter, more challenging questions are often overshadowed by the spectacle of expeditious permits and skyrocketing share prices.
There are also challenging questions. According to the AP’s investigation, some of the businesses currently in negotiations with the government have a mixed record, including untested business models, incomplete operational histories, and legal disputes. The unanswered question of what occurs after the minerals are extracted from the ocean floor is perhaps more concerning. Infrastructure for processing and refining is still mostly lacking. Whether the economics of deep-sea mining can withstand contact with reality or whether what is being offered to investors is more of a promise than a plan is still up for debate.
It’s difficult not to compare this to other resource booms that happened quickly and left complex legacies in their wake. Scientific understanding is not keeping up with the rate of regulatory approval. In reality, there has never been any commercial deep-sea mining in international waters. Never. That’s not a small warning; rather, it’s the main point that everything else should most likely revolve around.
The findings of the AP investigation do not necessarily indicate corruption. The fact that the machine is operating, permits are being processed, auctions are being planned, and the individuals voicing the most grave concerns are the ones who are least likely to be present when decisions are made is more unsettling. For millions of years, the ocean floor has been silent. That might not be the case for very long.
