When the forecast maps are released and no one has anything comforting to say, a certain kind of quiet dread descends upon agricultural communities. Parts of Ohio seem to be experiencing that emotion at the moment. The majority of the United States faces higher-than-even chances of a warmer-than-average summer, according to NOAA’s most recent seasonal outlook, which was made public by the Climate Prediction Center. Ohio, which is still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s historic drought, is closely monitoring every contour line on those maps.
By all standards, the summer of 2024 was shocking. For the first time in the 25-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor, a portion of southeastern Ohio reached Exceptional Drought—D4, the most severe classification—in August of that year. Nearly 88% of the state was experiencing drought by late September, with significant portions of southern Ohio experiencing Extreme to Exceptional conditions. Farmers were in a panic. The scarcity of feed and fodder was growing. Additionally, the National Integrated Drought Information System had identified the slow creep of flash drought as early as June, and it had come sooner than most people had anticipated.
Looking back, it’s not that the drought occurred, but rather that Ohio wasn’t totally unprepared. Ohio State climatologist Aaron Wilson had been keeping an eye on the signals. Ohio was officially free of drought on April 25, 2024, when NIDIS and its Midwest partners released a Drought Status Update. However, Wilson and his associates were already observing long-term precipitation deficits and decreasing subsurface moisture, and they were aware of the implications of this combination as a hot summer approached. Wilson activated the Drought Response Team at Ohio State University Extension using that April update. By the end of June, the team was working hard to provide producers with resources, disseminate advice regarding feed shortages, and maintain open lines of communication throughout the state’s agricultural networks.
Agriculture officials are already preparing for another drought as the summer of 2025 approaches, according to NOAA forecast maps that depict Ohio’s summer outlook. On paper, the forecast isn’t dire; Ohio’s rainfall is listed with about equal chances of falling close to, above, or below average, which means that no one is certain. Whether the moisture advantage from a comparatively wet spring will last long enough into summer to shield crops during the hottest weeks is still up for debate. Wilson admits that although recent spring rainfall should allay early worries, the unrelenting evaporative demand of July and August can undo those gains more quickly than most people anticipate.
El Niño is the primary climate driver this season, and it is generally anticipated that it will intensify or grow throughout the summer. The periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean’s surface, known as El Niño, modifies weather patterns across continents, sometimes in predictable ways and sometimes not. It doesn’t have a clear signature for the Midwest. Wilson points out that Ohio experienced warm summers in two recent strong El Niño years, whereas previous episodes were colder. That ambiguity is unsettling in its own right. The best course of action when the weather indicates that “anything could happen” is to get ready for the more difficult scenario.
It’s difficult to ignore how Ohio’s summertime strategy is being influenced by the institutional muscle memory from 2024. Because of the state’s investment in drought monitoring infrastructure, such as the NIDIS dashboard, early warning systems, and connections between state climatologists and extension offices, the response machinery doesn’t have to start over when the maps begin to look familiar. That’s a big deal. Drought doesn’t make a polite announcement. It comes through weeks of clear skies and dry wind, pastures that turn brown a bit too soon, and corn that curls its leaves before noon. The early warning system is in place because there is less time for effective intervention by the time the majority of people experience the drought.
It’s genuinely unclear if this summer will be as severe as last year or remain more typical. However, Ohio’s agricultural officials are keeping a close eye on the NOAA forecast maps, interpreting them in the same way that seasoned farmers interpret the sky: they are seeking sufficient information to take action before it’s too late, not certainty.
