As is often the case, the announcement was made quietly. Early in June, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that El Niño conditions had officially begun in the tropical Pacific. The 0.5°C-above-average threshold that scientists use to signal the start of the event has been crossed by sea surface temperatures. That sentence hardly makes sense to most people. However, it triggers a kind of controlled alarm for climate researchers, agricultural planners, and humanitarian organizations—the kind where everyone knew it was coming but hoped it wouldn’t arrive quite so soon.
This time, the arrival itself is not unusual. The Pacific has always experienced El Niño cycles, which alternate between warmer and cooler phases over many years. The background is out of the ordinary. Due to rising greenhouse gas emissions, the last eleven years have been the warmest on record for the entire world. You’re not just looking at another hot year when you combine that heat with a potentially powerful El Niño. These circumstances have the potential to momentarily raise average global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold that the Paris Agreement was intended to safeguard. By 2030, scientists now predict that threshold may be consistently exceeded. That is no longer a far-off projection. Anyone working in climate policy today has the potential to achieve that.
The scientific community believes that this particular El Niño has the potential to be among the strongest ever recorded, a “super” event that hasn’t happened since 2016. Researchers are observing that the computer models are already remarkably confident about their strength. This early in a cycle, confidence in El Niño forecasts is uncommon. That might simply be the models getting older. Another possibility is that the signal is just that strong.
There will be unequal distribution of the practical repercussions. During El Niño years, drier conditions typically predominate in South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, increasing the risk of drought, stressing agriculture, and increasing the danger of wildfires. Flooding becomes the main threat elsewhere, especially in parts of Africa and Central America. In order to reach 8.8 million people in 22 priority countries before the worst happens, the FAO and World Food Programme have already started a joint appeal for $202 million.
Cash aid, seeds resistant to flooding and drought, early warning systems, and water storage support are all part of the plan; these interventions are meant to be implemented before, not after, disasters. Agencies emphasize that taking action early on is more cost-effective and efficient than scrambling after crops have failed and displacement has started.
Africa already has a lot on its plate. According to the most recent climate report from the World Meteorological Organization, at least 13 million people were impacted by extreme weather events on the continent in 2025, and over 3,000 people died as a result. More than half of those incidents were caused by flooding alone. Last May, severe floods in Nigeria claimed the lives of over 200 people. The amount of ice covering Mount Kilimanjaro has decreased from 11.4 square kilometers in 1900 to less than one square kilometer today. These are not distant, abstract statistics. They show that the continent is warming more quickly than the rest of the world and has less infrastructure to withstand shocks.
The peculiar compression of timelines that is currently taking place is difficult to ignore. There are still about three years left in the 1.5°C carbon budget, according to research presented by scientists at the 2026 Bonn Climate Change Conference. It is anticipated that El Niño will get stronger in late 2026 and early 2027. 2027 is probably going to be the record-breaking heat year. In the same small window, everything is coming together.
Beneath all of this, there is, of course, some more measured news. A 4.5°C increase by the end of the century is now unrealistic, according to researchers who recently lowered their worst-case emissions scenarios. This is primarily due to changes in policy and the quick expansion of renewable energy sources worldwide. That is important. It implies that the choices made in the previous ten years weren’t completely pointless. However, it has no bearing on what will happen soon. El Niño doesn’t wait for long-term forecasts to stabilize. It’s already here, changing the winds, warming the ocean, and starting to disrupt the weather patterns that billions of people rely on.
According to WFP’s acting executive director, there is a limited window of opportunity for preparation. The severity of the next two years for the world’s most vulnerable communities will probably depend on what is done in the coming months.
