It’s been hard to take your eyes off of Britain’s summer, and not always for the better. In southern England, lawns have turned a straw color. Greens on golf courses near Maidenhead are bright green, and the fairways are so dry that they’re almost yellow. People in Wisley, Surrey, didn’t get any rain for more than five weeks. That is not a heatwave fact. For fifteen days, you looked up at the sky and got nothing in return.
There are some very interesting numbers behind all of this. Britain and Wales had only gotten 34% of their normal summer rainfall by the middle of July. Most of that rain fell in the first few days of June. The Met Office confirmed that central and south-east England have had the longest dry spell this century without any breaks. There was an official drought in a lot of north and mid-Wales. A lot of people can’t use hosepipes. There are not many reservoirs left. There are fires in Greater Manchester, the Cairngorms, and some parts of Wales.
That being said, this summer is already being called historically warm in a way that goes beyond just being uncomfortable. The Met Office said that the mean temperature in the UK at this point in 2026 is 1.8°C above the seasonal average. This is up from 1.1°C above the average at this point in 2025. It has been warmer than 30°C for longer than almost any other year. Before the slight change in the wind this week, Usk in Monmouthshire and Exeter in Devon both had heatwaves that lasted for 19 days in a row.
It might rain this weekend, which is something people in the south haven’t seen in a while. From the northwest, a band of weather fronts will move across the UK on Saturday and Sunday and move southeast. It won’t be exciting. Most forecasters, including the Met Office, are being careful not to make it sound better than it is. Northwest Scotland could get up to 25 mm of rain, which is a lot of water, but many parts of England and Wales might only get a few mm. There might be none at all in some parts of the south. After weeks of not getting any rain, dry ground tends to push light rain away instead of soaking it up. While it’s nice, it probably won’t make a big difference in the drought.
Friday is the last day of warmth before the cooler, wetter air comes in. There are yellow heat health alerts in effect across central and southern England, including London, the East and West Midlands, eastern England, and the south-east and south-west of England. Some places will see temperatures reach 30°C. There is a short window on Friday afternoon when the northwesterly winds will die down just enough to let the temperatures rise before the change over the weekend.
The picture gets better for people who liked the heat as you look further out, but it gets worse for people who really needed the rain. Much of August is likely to see the return of high pressure, especially in the south and central parts of England. That means the weather will be more stable and dry, with possibly more heat waves and the occasional summer thunderstorm in the south. In contrast, areas in the north and west are still more likely to experience short periods of rain from Atlantic fronts.
In the middle of all of this, it seems like Britain’s summer of 2026 has gone beyond just being hot into something with real effects on farming, the water supply, and the health of anyone who can’t handle long periods of heat. The UK has had warm summers before, but this one seems to be different because of the 1.8°C difference and the long dry spells in the past. It remains to be seen whether August brings more of the same or a real cooling. The predictions are mostly stable. The ground still wants water. For now, the sky only has good things to say.
