Watching a global weather forecast is almost unsettling. A region of the ocean that roughly corresponds to the eastern and central tropical Pacific is warming at a rate that NOAA forecasters are referring to as a “rare occurrence.” And yet here we are, with scientists subtly shifting their language from cautious to alarmed as we approach what might be one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history.
El Niño starts off fairly modestly. The force of trade winds, which typically drive warm surface water westward toward Southeast Asia, diminishes. Back east, the warm water sloshes. The deep, cold water off South America is no longer able to rise to the surface. What comes next is not local. It’s worldwide, cascading, and possibly historic if the present course continues.
It’s hard to sit with the numbers. According to forecasters from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, over half of their models indicate that by fall, temperatures in the crucial Pacific monitoring zone will rise by more than 2.5 degrees Celsius. The most recent “very strong” event, which occurred in 2015–2016, peaked at 2.4 degrees. According to some models, the rise might be more than 3 degrees, which would be higher than the last recorded peak in 1877, a year that caused devastating famine and drought in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, killing millions of people over the course of 18 months.
When you look at the regional patterns, it’s difficult to ignore the shape of what’s coming. Australia and Indonesia frequently experience severe dry spells, which lengthen wildfire seasons and negatively impact agriculture. India’s monsoon system is becoming more unpredictable, historically bringing below-average rainfall to a subcontinent that is already dealing with long-term water scarcity. In the meantime, communities on the west coast of South America, parts of East Africa, and parts of Central Asia prepare for unexpected flooding that could leave them stranded. Peru has previously experienced this. Ethiopia and Haiti have also done so. The wounds are still present.
The fact that El Niño is no longer entering a stable climate is what makes the current moment feel different—possibly heavier. It is entering one that has warmed for decades already. According to Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risk at the University of Reading, if this event reaches its anticipated intensity, we’re probably going to see record global temperatures next year. On its own, El Niño usually raises global averages by about 0.2 degrees Celsius. That math creates new records when stacked on top of pre-existing warming. The world experienced its hottest year in recorded history after the 2023–2024 event. There is every reason to believe that 2027 will make a similar effort.
All of this has a humanitarian component that is often reduced to statistics that don’t fully reflect the situation on the ground. Over 60 million people were directly impacted by the El Niño of 2015–2016. It was Ethiopia’s worst drought in fifty years. The food supply for more than 40 million people in southern Africa was in grave danger. Crop failures, flooding, population displacement, and rising food prices that affected people far from the epicenter were all repeated on a similar scale in the 2023–2024 event. Development organizations believe that the world is always reacting to these crises rather than preparing for them.
The final strength of this event is still unknown. Although El Niño spring forecasts have historically been unreliable, forecasters acknowledge that this year they are more optimistic than usual. For the event to reach super El Niño strength, the ocean and atmosphere must reinforce one another in a feedback loop; whether this occurs completely is still up for debate. However, there is no longer any uncertainty about the direction of travel. The Pacific is getting warmer. The trends are changing. And someone is already keeping an eye on the sky somewhere outside of a drought-ravaged field in rural Indonesia or a flood-prone village in the Horn of Africa.
