On a Tuesday morning in late May, meteorologists convened at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, a location that has a subtle jet fuel and weather map odor, to deliver what appeared to be generally positive news. They predicted that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would probably be below average. fewer storms with names. fewer hurricanes. There is a 55% chance that this season will fall into the “below normal” category. The figures must have felt like a tiny exhale to coastal communities still processing memories of previous destruction.
The World Meteorological Organization swiftly endorsed the assessment and amplified the forecast via its own channels. However, anyone who looked past the headline saw that the WMO did more than simply accept the figures and move on. There was a subtle but noticeable undercurrent of worry, the kind that seasoned observers of these establishments have come to recognize.
It was stated clearly by WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. According to her, there are genuine and increasing risks associated with tropical cyclones. Saying that while simultaneously endorsing a forecast that predicts fewer storms is striking. It’s like when a doctor says, “Your blood pressure looks fine this year,” but adds that they are still very concerned about the long-term trend.
The lower forecast’s science is fairly simple. El Niño conditions have historically suppressed Atlantic storm activity by increasing wind shear, which essentially disrupts the atmospheric columns that hurricanes need to organize and strengthen. El Niño is predicted to develop and intensify during the 2026 hurricane season. Although the suppression effect is somewhat mitigated by the predicted slightly warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the general scientific consensus points to a quieter season. With a 70% confidence level, NOAA predicts 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 will develop into hurricanes and only 1 to 3 will reach major status.
Nevertheless, the number one consistently appears in almost all forecaster statements, almost like a mantra. At the press conference, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs reiterated the phrase “It only takes one,” which has become a common yet genuinely significant refrain. Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, went one step further and pointed out that three days prior to impact, every category 5 storm that has ever made landfall in the US was a tropical storm or weaker. It’s not a statistical footnote. That makes the case for a particular type of humility.
The 2025 season does a grim job of illustrating the point. During an above-average season, Hurricane Melissa, the strongest storm to ever make landfall in Jamaica, made landfall last year. However, neither the path it took nor the extent of the damage it caused were anticipated. In Jamaica alone, economic losses amounted to over half of the nation’s GDP, or about 12.2 billion dollars. Over 90 people lost their lives in the area. Later on, Jamaica’s meteorological service received recognition for its crisis response, which speaks to the discrepancy between a seasonal forecast and the actual arrival of a storm.
Observing this yearly forecast ritual gives the impression that the scientific community is facing a challenging communication issue. It is more difficult to communicate the real message—that while fewer storms are anticipated, any one storm has the potential to be disastrous—than a straightforward red or green signal. Additionally, NOAA is incorporating drone technology, AI-based weather models, and next-generation satellite data into its forecasting systems this year. According to Jacobs, these tools will increase accuracy beyond any previous season. When a storm quickly intensifies 48 hours off the coast, these developments might be crucial. Whether the public infrastructure is keeping up with the improved forecasts is still up for debate.
When the diplomatic language is removed, what the WMO’s endorsement actually conveys is that the international scientific community agrees on the numbers, but also acknowledges that the numbers are only one aspect of the story. Safe is not the same as below average. Reduced storm frequency does not equate to less severe effects. Furthermore, as history repeatedly shows, a single landfalling hurricane has the ability to make all statistical probabilities seem insignificant.
