About halfway between Hawaii and Mexico, there is a section of the Pacific Ocean where the seafloor resembles something from a fever dream. The seabed is covered in lumpy, dark formations, roughly the size and shape of potatoes, thousands of feet below the surface, in almost complete darkness and cold that would kill a human in minutes. Like trees counting time, they have been sitting there for millions of years, slowly growing and building up rings of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper. They are referred to by scientists as polymetallic nodules. They are referred to as an opportunity by mining companies. Governments are now circling around.
Some analysts claim that the 4,500-mile-long fracture zone known as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone contains one of the world’s largest unexplored concentrations of vital minerals, potentially valued at trillions of dollars. These metals are used in defense technologies, clean energy systems, and batteries for electric vehicles. Additionally, Washington has determined that it is no longer prepared to wait for anyone’s consent as China tightens its hold on terrestrial mineral supply chains.
In order to counter China’s increasing control over vital mineral resources, President Trump signed an executive order last year that accelerated seabed mining in international waters. Recently, NOAA expedited its environmental review process, reducing timelines that conservation organizations claim were already insufficiently long. It’s difficult to ignore how quickly everything is happening—a new industry, significant ramifications, and all of a sudden, everyone is rushing.
One of the most active companies in this market, The Metals Company, has submitted applications to extract between 3 and 20 million tons of nodules annually from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone over a 20-year lease. According to their own environmental manager Michael Clarke, their approach entails creating what is essentially a massive underwater vacuum cleaner that crawls along the seabed and draws nodules up through a pipe to a surface vessel. That description makes it sound almost unremarkable. Most likely it isn’t.
Serious concerns are being raised by scientists who have examined the fallout from test mining. Two months after test operations, researchers from the UK’s Natural History Museum discovered that biodiversity had decreased by 32% and species abundance at mining sites had decreased by 37%. Nobody truly knows what happens after that—whether those ecosystems recover and how long it takes—because the research hasn’t gone that far. Depending on your point of view, that knowledge gap can be either extremely concerning or practically helpful.
The science seems to be asked to run alongside the bulldozer instead of in front of it. Roughly 90% of the species in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone are still unknown to science, according to one study. The creatures down there are amazing, bioluminescent, and adapted to one of the harshest environments on Earth, according to Steve Haddock, a senior scientist at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. Casper is a ghostly white octopus that was found ten years ago but has not yet received a formal name. On sponges that develop on nodules, it deposits its eggs. That life cycle might just come to an end if you take the nodules.
In the meantime, dozens of nations have gathered in Jamaica under the auspices of the International Seabed Authority, a UN-affiliated organization designed to regulate precisely this kind of situation, in an effort to finalize regulations before the rush devolves into a free-for-all. The United States has mostly chosen to proceed on its own, opting out of that process. Environmentalists, legal experts, and Pacific Island countries are all alarmed by this ruling because they fear a dangerous precedent: that the most powerful nations will simply mine the international seabed before any framework is in place, rendering the framework meaningless.
Situated atop the Pacific’s largest exclusive economic zone, French Polynesia has called for a moratorium. The world has been publicly urged by its president not to “play gods with the cradle of life.” In the meantime, Tonga has reportedly welcomed a partnership with the United States to investigate extraction, a move that has infuriated local civil society organizations, who perceive it as Pacific elites negotiating away something that is not solely theirs.
Additionally, the economics aren’t as clear-cut as the pitch implies. The markets for minerals are really erratic. After reaching a peak in 2022, lithium prices fell by over 80%. Graphite, nickel, and cobalt have all experienced significant drops. The notion that Pacific countries will make consistent public revenue from this sector, as opposed to taking on risk while profits go elsewhere, needs far more examination than it currently receives.
It’s still unclear if deep-sea mining will live up to the expectations of its proponents or if the costs—biological, legal, and geopolitical—will greatly exceed the benefits. What is evident is that decisions are currently being made more quickly than the science supports, including executive orders, application filings, and regulatory shortcuts. Furthermore, the Clarion-Clipperton Zone won’t get the millions of years it took to develop into what it is.
