Farmers throughout the Lake Erie basin begin observing the sky in a different way every June, somewhere between the spreadsheets and the soil reports. Rain is a part of it, but it’s not for the rain itself; rather, it’s for the things that rain brings. the nutrient-rich runoff that empties into rivers, tributaries, and the lake itself after leaving fertilized cornfields. what nourishes the blooms.
At a media briefing held at Ohio State’s Stone Laboratory on South Bass Island on June 25, NOAA will present its 2026 forecast for Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms. The location is only accessible by ferry, which seems fitting for news that usually arrives gradually and then all at once. NOAA’s chief forecaster for dangerous algal blooms, Rick Stumpf, will be present in person. Researchers from Heidelberg University, the EPA, and the University of Michigan will also participate. The briefing serves as both a press conference and a reckoning.
The accumulation of context surrounding this year’s forecast, rather than just the number NOAA will assign to the bloom’s expected severity, is what makes it worth closely examining. The season last year was predicted to be mild to moderate, which may seem comforting, but keep in mind that 2014 was also classified as such, up until the toxins from cyanobacteria cut off drinking water for about 500,000 people in Toledo, Ohio, for two days. On the western side of this lake, the phrase “mild to moderate” has special significance.
Although they are classified as bacteria, cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae, have existed for billions of years. They contributed to the early Earth’s atmosphere becoming more oxygenated. They are not brand-new. The extent to which human activity has been feeding them is relatively new, or at least recently severe. Lake Erie’s tributaries are loaded with nitrogen and phosphorus by agricultural runoff, especially from large-scale corn production used for ethanol and animal feed. More of it is washed in with each strong storm. Warmer water temperatures hasten the growth of cyanobacteria, and climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of those storms. It’s not a subtle combination.
The public discussion of this issue is particularly tense. Because forecasts are uncertain, bloom severity is dependent on weather patterns that change late in the season, and the relationship between nutrient loading and bloom size isn’t exactly linear, scientists exercise caution. For their part, farmers frequently feel unfairly singled out. Many have embraced reduced tillage, cover crops, and conservation techniques. This is sometimes acknowledged and sometimes not by the environmental community. The lake, on the other hand, is unconcerned with politics.
What’s more recent and concerning is what University of Michigan researchers discovered when they sequenced DNA from samples of Lake Erie water. The Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research’s Gregory Dick’s team discovered new types of microcystins, the toxins that caused the Toledo crisis in 2014, that are undetectable by existing testing techniques. These molecules are present below the standard monitoring threshold. The fact that they exist and are undetectable by conventional testing is the kind of information that tends to stick with you, even though research on whether they are harmful to human health at the concentrations found is still ongoing.
Research vessel cruises and laboratory demonstrations are scheduled for those who take the ferry to Put-in-Bay, and the June 25 briefing will be streamed online for registered media. In some respects, it is a truly collaborative exercise in public science, with agencies, universities, and state and federal bodies attempting to convey complex information in a clear and timely manner so that communities can get ready. The number and the amount of precipitation in the spring determine whether the forecast is a warning or a reassurance. The course of 2026 is still unknown. However, the farmers who are observing from the shore are already aware that waiting is a sort of solution.
