In Overland Park, Monday mornings seem almost too simple. The air is clear, and before sunrise, the temperature is comfortably in the upper teens. By afternoon, it is rising steadily to a high of about 29°C. On this Memorial Day, residents who leave early find the skies open and leisurely, with gentle winds barely registering from the southeast. It’s the kind of morning that gives you confidence in the coming week. As it happens, that trust might be a little misplaced.
Because the weather in Overland Park tends to provide a nice start before making things much more difficult. Tuesday is still looking pretty good; it will be partly cloudy, warm once more, and, depending on the forecast you choose, close to 29 or 30°C. However, the atmosphere is already becoming more unstable and moist, and by Wednesday morning, things have drastically changed. Forecasters predict that thunderstorms will persist, with a 55 percent chance of notable activity from early morning until late at night. That’s not unusual territory for a city located in the Kansas City metro area. Here, it’s just the late May rhythm.
It’s important to consider a larger context. Overland Park is located right in the area where cooler systems drifting down from the north collide with warm Gulf air, and the Great Plains have been cycling through erratic patterns for the past week. It’s possible that Wednesday’s thunderstorm activity will be rather dispersed, consisting of isolated cells that move swiftly and leave the air with a fresh scent. It’s also possible that they don’t. The National Weather Service has been keeping a close eye on the area, and terms like “humid” and “stray t-storm” are used in a number of forecasts in ways that imply some real uncertainty even among experts.
For the approximately 200,000 residents, this week’s high levels of grass and tree pollen are a sort of weather story in and of themselves. A unique kind of unpleasantness that doesn’t always make the forecast headlines is venturing outside into 29°C heat with southeasterly winds blowing pollen across Johnson County’s well-kept suburban streets. The majority of people will be comfortable outside because the air quality is currently rated as fair, though those who are sensitive might want to reconsider spending a lot of time in the afternoon sun.
As the week draws to a close, it becomes truly unsettling. According to AccuWeather, there is an 88 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. This is one of those forecasts that essentially advises you to cancel your outdoor plans and accept the situation. The pattern is expected to continue on Saturday and Sunday, with low-to-mid-twenties temperatures and the possibility of rain. The warmth of spring giving way to something more contentious is the type of late May stretch that people in Kansas are accustomed to.
There is some respite the next week. The forecast significantly improves by Monday, June 1st, with sunny skies, temperatures returning to roughly 27°C, and humidity falling to more bearable levels. Around that moment, the city seems to exhale, emerging from the storm corridor and returning to something akin to summer. With the weather in Overland Park, it’s always unclear if that will hold. Today’s sunshine is real and deserving of appreciation. The events of Wednesday through Sunday serve as a reminder that the sky always has the last say in Kansas.
