Not even three weeks have passed since the previous heatwave, and here we are once more. London, the South East, East Anglia, and the South West are all covered by amber heat health alerts in southern and eastern England. On Friday, the temperature will rise to 30°C; on Sunday, it will reach 32°C; on Monday or Tuesday, it may even reach 34°C in some places. This is beginning to feel like a truly different kind of June for a nation where summer heat has historically meant a courteous 22C and an excuse to purchase a portable fan.
The amber alerts were released by the UK Health Security Agency on Thursday morning and will remain in effect until Tuesday at 8 p.m. In this context, “amber” refers to more than just being hot and uncomfortable. More emergency calls, more hospital admissions, and, most soberly, a higher chance of deaths, especially among those over 65 or managing chronic conditions, are all expected to put significant strain on the health system. It’s worth pausing to consider that. These aren’t merely predictions for the weather. They are meteorological warnings disguised as public health alerts.
The workings of what’s going on are reasonably well understood. Over western Europe, a sizable region of high pressure has formed, functioning as a lid over a pot. Warm air that would typically rise and cool is forced back down, causing it to heat up even more. This is known as a “heat dome” by meteorologists. This coming week, temperatures in France, Spain, and Germany are predicted to reach the high 30s, with figures that would have seemed extreme even ten years ago in European cities. Scotland and Northern Ireland are still comparatively colder due to Britain’s location on the northern edge of all of that, but the south of England is receiving enough warm air to make the weather feel truly oppressive.
This stretch is noteworthy in part because of the timing. The UK set a new monthly temperature record of 35C a few weeks ago in May. According to the Met Office, there is currently a 40% chance of surpassing the June record of 35.6C, which was set in 1957 and matched in 1976. That’s not a given, but it’s also not out of the question. Observing records that stood for decades turn into believable headlines on a nearly daily basis is peculiar.
Friday afternoon temperatures in the Greater London area are predicted to be close to 32C. The heat is predicted to slightly subside on Saturday before rising once more on Sunday and Monday. There is a chance of thunderstorms, which could provide short-term respite in some places but also produce the kind of humid, heavy air that makes you feel worse than the sun by itself. The thermometer and the atmosphere don’t quite agree on how hot it is in this type of weather.
This cycle, health authorities have been remarkably consistent in promoting the same recommendations. Drink plenty of water. During the hottest part of the day, keep your windows closed. See how your elderly neighbors are doing. The RNLI has also updated its water safety guidelines in response to the 16 water-related deaths that occurred during the May heatwave. These guidelines serve as a reminder that the sea temperature is still low enough to cause cold-water shock even though the air above it is warm. Don’t swim alone, stay between the flags, and float on your back. When it’s hot and the coast is near, useful reminders are often neglected.
During a heatwave forecast, there is a more general question that looms over all of this that no one quite expresses aloud but that is getting harder to ignore. The majority of Britain’s infrastructure, including its hospitals, transportation networks, and housing stock, was constructed for a different climate. Homes with poor ventilation, train tracks that buckle, cooling resources that remain scarce compared to countries more accustomed to sustained summer heat. There isn’t yet a pattern of two heatwaves in three weeks. However, it’s also not nothing.
